JR Swift’s Blog

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A quick note on the Field of 65

Posted by jrswift on March 9, 2007

Didn’t make it online last night to preview any more teams but somehow I think the world has managed to survive this lack of activity on my part.  This is going to be a quick listing of where I think we are in terms of the field as of right now.  I’ll probably change my mind on a few teams over the next couple of days but I won’t have a chance to share those thought with you all since I won’t be around a computer.  Two or three teams could change and I’ll let you know if they did after the fact.  You’ll just have to believe me.

Yesterday was a rough day for a few teams that were already on the edge of the bubble (do bubbles have edges?) as Georgia Tech, Stanford and Air Force all took losses.  I think Georgia Tech is still solidly in but I’m not too sure about the other two.  I’m leaving all these teams in for now but both Stanford and Air Force are on the list of teams that could get knocked out by upsets or big runs from teams currently out.  If Xavier wins the Atlantic 10, there are 6 spots available that I haven’t accounted for yet.  If they lose, there is only 5.  The 6 teams I think are getting those bids are Purdue, Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas St., Old Dominion and Missouri St.  And, yes, Missouri St. is my official “last out” so they can’t afford any upsets.  There are a couple of developing stories in the SEC.  Mississippi St. beat Kentucky today and, if they were to win tomorrow and make it to the conference finals, they might just pull out a bid.  Arkansas is also beating Vanderbilt today and if they were to win and also win tomorrow, I’d give them a better than 50/50 shot at that last bid.   I don’t think Oklahoma St. has a shot, even with a run to the tournament finals so I’ll leave them out.  I’d say my last four in are the following:

62. Kansas St. (Could be out if Memphis, Nevada and Xavier lose plus another major conference Cinderella run)

63. Stanford (Need to be sure that three of the above four things don’t happen)

64. Old Dominion (Need to be sure that two of the above four things don’t happen)

65. Missouri St. (Out if any of the above upsets take place and could be knocked out by Arkansas or maybe Mississippi St. if those teams make a good run)

Last Four out:

66. Florida St. (Just too many losses…beating Clemson didn’t really prove much)

67. Arkansas (Can still get in…see above)

68. Drexel (Feel bad about this one but I just don’t think they can make it)

69. Clemson (Still think this is a better team than they finished but too many losses too late.

And the four after that:

70. Mississippi St. (Can still make a run)

71. West Virginia (No real good wins except UCLA)

72. Michigan (So close but just doesn’t feel right)

73. Alabama (Team should have made it easily but they won’t this year)

So that’s where things stand right now.  I have almost no confidence in the last few teams at this point because too many things can happen between then and now.  I usually don’t play around with seeding too much but I think the current number ones are Ohio St., Kansas, UCLA and Florida.  North Carolina might have a shot if they win out but they aren’t there yet.  Same is true of Wisconsin.  Maybe also Texas A&M but I think that is a long shot and probably too many teams have to lose for them to realistically make it.  Georgetown if they win the Big East???  I don’t know….it is possible but not likely.  Those last four are your number two’s with Memphis,  Washington St and maybe the Big East and ACC runners up if they have a decent profile.  I think the only one seed that is probably safe is Ohio St.  I think they can lose and still keep it.

So that’s it…I’m finished blogging about this until Sunday.  Come back then and I’ll let you know how I did.  Have a great weekend!

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